Jonathan Daniel - Getty Images
6 months ago: CHICAGO, IL - NOVEMBER 20: Matt Forte #22 of the Chicago Bears runs past Antwan Barnes #98 of the San Diego Chargers at Soldier Field on November 20, 2011 in Chicago, Illinois. The Bears defeated the Chargers 31-20. (Photo by Jonathan Daniel/Getty Images)
When the NFL season comes to a conclusion every year, teams begin devising plans to acquire new talent. The NFL Draft is your primary conduit, where tomorrow's superstars are introduced into the NFL. But free agency is always the quick and dirty solution to every team's problems.
At least that's the hope.
Realistically free agency tends to be an over-hyped party machine for the league's richest owners because most players are either past their prime, asking for more money than what they're worth and if they were still that good, their original teams wouldn't let them leave so freely.
Take last year for example. Cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha agreed to a five-year deal worth $60 million with the Philadelphia Eagles. Asomugha allowed four touchdowns in 2011, a 61.7 completion rate and an opposing quarterback rating of 88.6. Wide receiver Sidney Rice signed a five-year deal worth $61 million with the Seattle Seahawks. He only played nine games and registered 32 receptions for 484 yards receiving and two touchdowns. Ray Edwards, who left Minnesota for Atlanta on a five-year deal worth $30 million, registering only 3.5 quarterback sacks.
Does that mean it doesn't always help? No. Cullen Jenkins signed a five-year deal worth $25 million with the Eagles, generating 25 quarterback pressures and 5.5 quarterback sacks. You know the story of Johnathan Joseph.
Yet when most players hit the free agency market, it's either because their past their prime or out of the former team's price range (and by extension beyond Cincinnati's price range). Look at 2010's free agent list. Of the top 20 players Scout.com rated as the top free agents, Julius Peppers ($91 million), Karlos Dansby ($43 million) and Terrell Owens were the only one's to change teams through free agency.
But you have ask yourself, do you really expect that the Ravens, Bears or Seahawks will let Ray Rice, Matt Forte and Marshawn Lynch will hit free agency respectively? What about Carlos Rogers, Cortland Finnegan or Brent Grimes? Did LaRon Landry play himself out of Cincinnati's price range, provided the Redskins decide not to franchise him?
Where free agency truly generates effective (and reasonable) meaning isn't so much the coveted superstar player that often underperforms compared to their ridiculous salary. Even though you're still able to pluck starters, it's where a team's depth comes into play, typically acquired several days after the initial Christmas line rush after the free agency dinner bell rings. That's where guys like Bruce Gradkowski, Donald Lee, Thomas Howard, Manny Lawson and Nate Clements are found.
So we offer this caution. Though people complain mightily about Cincinnati's inaction during the early morning hours when free agency kicks off, it's usually because the players that are available are valued far too high than their worth due to the overall shortage of elite talent or that the talent just isn't there. The key point to remember for free agency this year isn't so much finding great talent, it's backing up the great talent that's already on Cincinnati's roster.
0 recs | 40 comments
Good post and thanks for the warning
but I still want a stud Guard and 2nd WR in FA
biggie22 - January 13, 2012
Yeah I think this logic works if you're looking for a premiere player at a skill position
QB, RB, #1 receiver, CB, even DE. Running backs in particular are usually a bad buy because you’re almost always paying them for what they’ve already done in their prime and will probably be shelling out top money for their declining years. But a good, young offensive lineman is gold. And a #2 receiver, if you have the QB and starter in place, shouldn’t be as hard to find as we made it in 2008-2010.
eric nyc - January 13, 2012
Ideally, in Free Agency, the goal is to target players coming off of their rookie contracts
Perhaps even targeting players the team may have wanted to draft 4-5 years earlier, and now have a chance to acquire.
This is a way of avoiding overpaying players past their prime.
I will mention that the Bengals have NEVER had as much cap room to spend on Free Agents as they do this offseason. The obvious question is will they spend it??
Look, The Quitter trade guaranteed approximately $50M OFF the books over the 2011-2014 seasons (this is money MB already budgeted to spend on player salary – i.e. he “expected Carson to perform for us” – remember those words at the pre-training camp press conference?). Additionally, Chad’s roughly $6.5M salary came OFF the books prior to this season, and Benson’s $3M salary is coming OFF the books, as well as Bobbie Williams $4.5M salary this offseason. Money is there to spend – that is plain to see.
With all of this in mind, I recall the 2003 offseason – i.e. right after Marvin was hired as HC. On the fsecond day of FA the Bengals had a press conference announcing the signing of three veteran FAs who the team purposely targeted. John Thornton (coming off his rookie contract), Kevin Hardy, and Tory James. All 3 players proved to be very productive signings and all had a large part in contributing to the division title team of 2005. By no means were any of those signings considered “blockbuster” deals, but they were targeted signings of very productive-team first players.
I see a similar situation developing this offseason. That is, 3 to 4 targeted FA signings of solid (not spectacular) players coming off their rookie contracts (WR Meacham, Tyvon Branch, etc.), and maybe a big signing a la Antwan Odom (who was considered a big signing at the time).
The_Black_Stripes - January 13, 2012
Nicks Nicks Nicks Nicks Nicks Nicks Nicks.....
Maybe if I say it enough times MB will hear me…
Nicks Nicks Nicks Nicks Nicks Nicks Nicks Nicks Nicks…….
eric nyc - January 13, 2012
I will join that Nicks choir til the proverbial "cows come home"
Nicks, Nicks, Nicks, Nicks, Nicks, Nicks, Nicks, Nicks.
I’m not getting my hopes up at all, right?? Haha
Look, the Bengals certainly do have the money to offer Nicks a bigger contract than his current teammate (Jahri Evans) in order to make him the highest paid OG in the NFL. Apparently, Nicks agent has made some not so subtle remarks that making his client (Nicks) the highest paid OG in the NFL is his primary focus. The Saints simply do NOT have the cap room.
Nicks will test the FA market, and only a handful of teams (the Bengals being one of them) have the requisite cap room to satisfy Nick’s agent’s desire.
The_Black_Stripes - January 13, 2012
Evan Mathis is a nice consolation prize if we lose out on Nicks and Grubbs
DTFCPDX - January 13, 2012
I'd like Mathis, too, if he would welcome a return, of course
Also like Dan Connolly of the Patriots. More than serviceable OG (can play both guard positions) and who has started 24 games over the past two seasons for the Patriots.
The_Black_Stripes - January 13, 2012
Mathis is ranked higher than Nicks and Grubbs
by PFF
Oregonbengalsfan - January 13, 2012
Exactly why he should be back in stripes, plus he's probably a little cheaper than Grubbs and Nicks.
DTFCPDX - January 13, 2012
I read that, but no one in their right mind will argue that Mathis is a superior guard than either Grubbs or Nicks.
Mathis is a very fine player, and I would welcome his return, but he is not better than Nicks or Grubbs, regardless of what PFF shows.
The_Black_Stripes - January 13, 2012
I don't know how that is physically possible
I don’t know what that “rating” is coming from, but Evan Mathis is not 5 times better than Grubbs at ANYTHING. And Carl Nicks is hands down the best LG in the league. All you have to do is actually WATCH THEM PLAY. That table doesn’t make any sense. Besides,Mathis isn’t coming back here. Not unless they fired Paul Alexander. Even then probably not. He burned all kinds of bridges when he left.
eric nyc - January 13, 2012
Mathis will NEVER come back here
after the way he was snubbed and the not-so-nice remarks he made about Mike Brown and the organization as a whole.
It would be nice, but that one’s a pipe dream, I think.
Anthony Cosenza - January 13, 2012
The ONLY thing that worries me...
Is that Drew Brees strikes me as the kind of guy who would accept less money or construct his contract in a way that would make it easier for the Saints to sign whoever he wants them to sign. I would assume that would mean Colston and Nicks. He might even find a way to make them sign Colston, Nicks, AND Meachem. Of course, that’s going to mean their defense will be in shambles for about the next 5-6 years, but with that group they might not need a defense…
eric nyc - January 13, 2012
Agree...
and sometimes its just due to teams overpaying players causing a log jam over past bonuses and payoffs to cause cap casualties.
Bengalsfan024 - January 13, 2012
Agree....
…I don’t think the Bengals approach to Free Agency is going to change any time in the near future either.
1. Re-sign your own guys first
2. Use remaining money to fill immediate gaps unlikely to be filled thru the draft
3. Don’t overspend on “marquis” players just because they can’t be re-signed by their own team.
I know everyone was looking at the FA list and licking their chops, but the odds of us landing a marquis guard or wr are extremely low. We are much more likely to focus on keeping what we have and then adding some journeymen to fill out the roster and compete where there are holes.
goffchile - January 13, 2012
Why would you say that? There are quite a few of each that will be hitting the market this year. I won’t go all into it since I have in other threads, but there are financial issues that are DEFINITELY going to have big name guys changing teams. We have the money, we don’t need to spread it around 4-5 positions, we should concentrate on a small few where that money can make a big difference. The line and #2 receiver fit the bill perfectly.
eric nyc - January 13, 2012
past behavior as an indication of future behavior.
The Bengals rarely make a splash in free agency. They typically sit while the “big players” are signed, see who is left over and pick over that. I don’t see that changing
goffchile - January 13, 2012
Thornton, Odom, Coles, Bryant...
Sam Adams, Deltha O’Neal, Dexter Jackson. Why does everyone on this board think we dont’ make free agent signings? The big thing is that a lot of free agents don’t want to come here. Now we have a young, star-studded offense with a rising star coordinator. No reason at all top offensive free agents wouldn’t want to come here for competitive money.
eric nyc - January 13, 2012
None of those guys is at that high a level
A lot of ’em were plain busts.
Sam Adams was overweight and did not do a thing.
There’s never been a year where the Bengals contended for the best free agent pick up.
Deltha O’Neal was a trade: In April, 2004, an unhappy O’Neal and the Broncos’ 24th (first round) and 117th (fourth round) spots in the 2004 NFL draft were traded to the Cincinnati Bengals in exchange for Cincinnati’s 17th spot in the first round.
occams_tiger_teeth - January 14, 2012
The draft pick was then used on Chris Perry after trading down 2 more spots
At 17 they could have had Will Smith or Vince Wilfork.
occams_tiger_teeth - January 14, 2012
Recent history does not support your assertion
2008 – Antwan Odom – considered a BIG signing – one of the top DE available in FA.
2009 – Lavaerneous Coles – admittedly signed only after we lost T.J., but Coles still signed a big money contract (4-years/$28M). That’s big money (Just take a look at Jordy Nelson’s extension. It is only 3-years/$13.4M).
2010 – Antonio Bryant – notwithstanding our old medical staff’s inability to conduct a proper physical at the tiem of his signing, this was another big money contract (4-years/$28M).
The_Black_Stripes - January 13, 2012
And those turned out awesome...
…but to my point—on all those guys—I’m not convinced that Antonio Bryan or Lavernous Coles would be equivalents to Marquis Colston or Antwan Odom would be considered an equivalent to Carl Nicks—which is the issue I"m addressing.
Yes, the Bengals sign free agents, I’m not denying that, but they typically wait while the “big money” guys go and see what’s left.
Let’s put it this way, I’m willing to bet anyone that will take it that we get neither Colston or Nicks.
goffchile - January 13, 2012
Well that would be a bad bet for anyone to take
At least until we know whether either one of them will actually be available. But I think Marvin, and more importantly GRUDEN, have won a lot of pull in the front office this season. Gruden in particular probably earned himself at least one blank check to spend on free agency by passing up even the interviews for HC positions. I would think his top priorities would be the line and receiver. He could also go after a RB, but he seems like a smart enough guy to know he can find one in a pretty loaded draft.
Just don’t be surprised if we see some uncharacteristic behavior out of PBS this offseason. Some things have been changing.
eric nyc - January 13, 2012
Just to reinforce my point...
…Odom was ranked the 9th best FA DE in 2008, Coles was ranked the 6th best WR in 2009, and Bryant to 7th best WR in 2010 according to Scout.com
These are our “big name” signings.
goffchile - January 13, 2012
I don't feel like looking up and down those lists...
But how many of the players ranked ahead of them re-signed with their old teams? I feel like Bryant was the 2nd or 3rd best WR available on the market. And Odom was definitely the 2nd best DE.
eric nyc - January 13, 2012
What's interesting looking at the lists...
…is that we typically let a “big name” getaway. We didn’t sign Justin Smith (ranked #2) to get Antwan Odom, ranked #9. We didn’t sign Housh (#2) to sign Coles.
In other words, what seems to prompt us to spend money is the loss of a “big name.”
goffchile - January 13, 2012
Can't really argue that...
Although we were smart to let Housh go – he went nowhere but downhill after we cut ties. We weren’t using Justin Smith correctly and weren’t going to change our scheme around him. I would have loved to have seen what Zimmer could have done with him though (fingers crossed for Derek Wolfe…).
eric nyc - January 13, 2012
I couldn't argue with not signing Housh either...
…just because I think that WRs are one of the more overpaid positions. Justin Smith didn’t have much support around him, so his life was difficult here. I’d love to have him back.
I just don’t see the Bengals gunning for the top free agents, just because that’s not what they do…they wait.
goffchile - January 13, 2012
+1 for Derek Wolfe
messjunk - January 13, 2012
I've been saying the same thing
We do spend money on FA, just not always wisely. Not much history with us going after an o-lineman though but plenty of history going after WR, I fully expect to go afer another WR this year and will just hope we go after an offesnsive guard as well
biggie22 - January 13, 2012
RE:
It’s not being cheap. It’s using it right… Laveranous Coles, Antwan Odom, Antonio Bryant, etc..
Josh Kirkendall - January 13, 2012
Agree with this!!!
The Bengals are willing to spend – at least recent history tells us such. It is, as you correctly stated, spending it wisely!!!!
The_Black_Stripes - January 13, 2012
Well any argument we make here has to ASSUME they spend it wisely
That may be a stupid assumption to make when you’re dealing with Mike Brown, but for argument’s sake I can’t really come on here and say “I think we should spend a boat load of money in free agency, and since Mike Brown is running the show that means they’ll all be SCRUBS!” We’re all working under the hope that Marvin has finally wrestled some control away from MB. If Marvin is serious about his power running game, he should be serious about getting the biggest, nastiest guard in the league.
eric nyc - January 13, 2012
Overspending leads to more problems that getting solid players
but sometimes if they think they are a piece or 2 away its worth it and they go all in…
usually doesnt work though.
Fill your major holes in FA. then draft BPA
Bengalsfan024 - January 13, 2012
marquee
supergrover - January 14, 2012
Great article Josh
May be the best article I’ve read here. Signing superstars in free agency almost always means buying at the players ceiling. There is only room for disappointment. And then there is the Patrick Ewing Effect of bringing in a marquis player that disrupts a team’s dynamic.
Spending pragmatically on serviceable starters/depth in a few select areas is the best way to maximize the benefit in FA. For all his faults, I’ve never had many issues with Mikey’s philsophy toward free agency. It will be interesting how MB’s attitude toward FA changes with the new cap floor rules coming into place.
EarthwormJim - January 13, 2012
This summer was a shocker
With Lawson, Howard, Clements coming on board as FA’s. They all played well this season. Proves good FA’s want to come to cincy.
With Dalton, there is some merit to build a young Oline from the draft that develops long term trust with Dalton. Same with a RB, get these guys in right out of the draft, they’ll develop together over the next 4 years and probably play much better.
Then again, if they can get big time upgrades at Oline at modest expense, that’s worth doing too.
BENGALS69 - January 13, 2012
Well I have a question?
How much cap space do we have this off seas??? Anyone know?
NCWhoDey1987 - January 13, 2012
this offseason* my bad
NCWhoDey1987 - January 13, 2012
Last time I did the rough math
It was something in the $20-25 million range all together.
eric nyc - January 13, 2012
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