Bob Levey - Getty Images
5 months ago: HOUSTON, TX - JANUARY 07: Bernard Scott #28 of the Cincinnati Bengals runs the ball against the Houston Texans during their 2012 AFC Wild Card Playoff game at Reliant Stadium on January 7, 2012 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
Going for it on 4th down has long been a controversial topic in the NFL. Fans and coaches often lie on opposite ends of this argument, with fans arguing for the exciting fourth-down attempt and coaches doing what is probably smarter, punting it.
Is it always smarter, though? Or is the coach just trying keep his butt off the hot seat?
Marvin Lewis is viewed as a very conservative head coach by most Bengals fans, but he falls just below average in regards to going for it on fourth down. As we mentioned a week ago, Marvin Lewis ranks 20th in the Football Outsiders Aggressiveness Index, which rates how often a head coach attempts fourth-down conversions.
New research by Brian Burke, founder of AdvancedNFLStats.com, suggests that going for it is statistically the better option in most situations. Burke has tallied data from 2,400 games between the 2000 and 2008 season, and he sides with the fans, saying it statistically makes sense to go for it:
"What the numbers suggest — and sometimes it seems crazy — but in almost all of those situations, it makes sense to go for it."
Burke also makes the case that the NFL is becoming a more offensive league, therefore devaluing the battle for field position (the typical argument for punting) and increasing the importance of possessing the ball. Because of this, he argues that teams must go for it more once they cross the midfield line. Burke backs this concept with this surprising statistic:
Teams convert a fourth and one — which includes situations ranging from fourth-and-inches to fourth-and-a-yard-and-a-half — around 74 percent of the time.
However, Burke explains that this percentage is far lower with teams that have sub-par offensive lines.
As many of us remember, the Bengals offensive line really struggled with short-yardage situations in 2011. Third-and-one seemed absolutely impossible to convert sometimes, with the line unable to push any defenders off and behind the line of scrimmage. Sometimes, there simply was no hole for the running back to squeeze through. Cedric Benson and Bernard Scott have taken their fair share of criticism this year, but I've seen many plays where a tackle-for-loss occurred and wasn't either running back's fault.
The Bengals need to upgrade this offensive line by a large margin to be able to comfortably run the ball on third-and-short and fourth-and-short. At this stage, the Bengals offense isn't quite high-powered enough to go for it as much as some other teams in the league, but they certainly have the foundation in place to become one.
0 recs | 21 comments
I'm watching the NFL honors
Seeing so many shots of our two rookie stars just makes me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. Wow, how great… And different.
SCbengalsfan - February 4, 2012 via mobile
Couldn't help but thinking
Jerome didn’t get play of the year because NFL didn’t want a potential felon getting that aware. Because his play killed Cobb’s play.
KSE - February 5, 2012
unfortunately
I don’t blame them. Dispassionately, JS play was neatest of the year. Haven’t seen Cobbs play. Might try to find vid when not on iPad.
supergrover - February 5, 2012
Did they use
The opening kickoff of the year?
Toasted_Orange_Monster - February 5, 2012 via mobile
Yes they did
SCbengalsfan - February 5, 2012 via mobile
Simpson's play was the play of the decade.
I don’t think we’ll see anything that cool again for a while.
Animal_Like_Football - February 5, 2012
I wonder about that a lot
I think teams should evaluate punting in specific situations more carefully, especially around the opponent’s 40 yard line (unless the down and distance is a low probability such as 5 and up). The team you playing makes a huge difference, be a great offense or return game. It should be a lot more contextual decision rather than a rule that they live by.
Also, if 2 pt conversions are above 50%, especially for one specific team, then going for that would give that team a huge advantage. That could increase the running back position’s value should they just be smashers or quick enough to take it outside if the middle gets too clogged. Or just have Drew Brees on your team (which would scare every team in the league if they just took extra points out of their playbook barring a false start on the conversion attempt).
I like this outside the box stuff. It’s always nice to challenge convention.
einman77 - February 4, 2012
I'm ol'school
Defense, running game,and field position
But i agree with the above posting,there are several factors that go into making that decision,
I wouldnt make it a all the time thing,or i wouldnt be dead set on not going for it either,IMO i think Marvin
has handled 4th downs really well,considering that lack of a running game this year
keithp - February 4, 2012
By all means go for it
Just don’t ever hand the freakin ball to Benson…and I do mean ever again.
laibach - February 5, 2012
It's not all on Benson
Football is the ultimate team sport. The offensive line must get a push off the line and the running back must have the vision to either slip through gaps or follow behind the blocker. Upgrade the line and Benson will suddenly be an improved RB.
Who dey in LA - February 5, 2012
the offensive line giftwrapped every yard Benson had
You can’t blame them for the running game when he had one of his best seasons in YPC without ever breaking a tackle or making anyone miss.
indesignkat - February 6, 2012
nfl coaches would get fired weekly if they went for it more on 4th down
palewook - February 5, 2012
Not if they were winning games
They are playing by old rules that are based on defense and run games. Right now that rule seems set in stone, but should a team start winning, especially upsets (which would give the team a slightly higher chance of success if they weren’t voluntarily giving the other team the ball that they can pretty much count on getting crushed if they do) then the talking heads in the media would talk about this controversial new way that is working. Should the innovation become the norm, which if these stats are right it could, then it could go off.
It would draw ire at first, but could pay off bigtime.
einman77 - February 5, 2012
the 2nd time a 4th down conversion failed in a game or the 2 week in a row it failed, or the 2nd game lost because of a failed 4th
would equal a coach fired in the nfl.
palewook - February 5, 2012
The second upset they win from it
gets them a year of immunity. It’s a gamble and an unconventional one. Easy to go with convention, but there is another side of the argument. It’s not as black and black as you’re making it.
einman77 - February 7, 2012
I read in sports ill a couple year ago about a highschool coach who ALWAY went for it on 4th even if it was on his 5
He had crazy success. I guess if your def is amazing
njbengalstat - February 5, 2012
I played for a coach just like that in HS
We went for it on 4th down the majority of the time. We didn’t even have a field goal unit and always went for 2. His play calling was suspect because he would choose to run up the middle on 4th and long, we had a huge line and stud RB but it wasn’t enough most of the time. With his strategy of playing the percentages we finished that season 1-9.
Bigcatdaddy - February 5, 2012 via Android app
Lol. Really? Well it must have been a wild season
njbengalstat - February 5, 2012
It was
He got fired and we made state the following season. Thank God for that cause it got me a scholarship.
Bigcatdaddy - February 6, 2012 via Android app
this has been debated for a long time
there have been researchers claiming it’s always a good idea to go for it on 4th down for years. I think if you’re past the 50 the go for it. On your end of the field, punt.
indesignkat - February 5, 2012
thats the common sense approach
palewook - February 5, 2012
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